Successful Predictions - It can be done

I am rather tired of seeing the standard quotes popping up at tiresome conferences where people on podiums point out that the future is difficult to predict. They have found quotes like these, which are all over the web.

• "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
• "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
• "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -- William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.
• "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." -- Albert Einstein, 1932.
• "The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives." -- Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.
• "Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

etc. etc.. More here if you're curious. 

I'm more interested in those who got it right. Like the writer of this news piece.

It's actually British newsreel film from 1939 which would have been shown in cinemas, in which they tried to predict fashions in the year 2000. I wonder if designer Jean Paul Gautier saw this film?  For the cone bra that he designed for Madonna or Lady Gaga looks just like it. And that men would carry mobile telephones? Or geeks would carry battery packs to keep their stuff charged up and ready to go? Better than Raymond Baxter on Tomorrow's World.

Where on earth is media going in 2013?

Are e-readers days numbered? They may be cheap, but they aren't cool.

It was a delight to contribute to the great Nic Newman Digital Predictions list this year. This is an annual look ahead to the year ahead for digital media in 2013 - with a few thoughts on the last 12 months as well. Although seen from a European perspective, it's far from Eurocentric. It's 30 pages - and plenty of references.

The warm glow of wireless up there in Regent's Street. Is there some kind of  festival on in All Souls Church?

The move to mobile, more social and video disruptions, journalism trends, business models, media policy -   the next disruptive technologies + companies to watch . It's all there. Perhaps the best news is that it's a free and independent publication. No money to be paypalled, no box tops to collect. The wonders can be found at this address. http://bit.ly/Ww3VPT . It's a 4 MB PDF so careful if you're mobile. We wouldn't want you to get hurt.

Feel free to circulate the link to friends. 

Which direction will new media take in Silicon Roundabout?

Is it really panic in Tabernacle Street Hackney?  That sign really is up there!

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