Saturday, June 22, 2013

Successful Predictions - It can be done

I am rather tired of seeing the standard quotes popping up at tiresome conferences where people on podiums point out that the future is difficult to predict. They have found quotes like these, which are all over the web.
  • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
  • "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
  • "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -- William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.
  • "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." -- Albert Einstein, 1932.
  • "The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives." -- Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.
  • "Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
etc. etc.. More here if you're curious. 

I'm more interested in those who got it right. Like the writer of this news piece.



It's actually British newsreel film from 1939 which would have been shown in cinemas, in which they tried to predict fashions in the year 2000. I wonder if designer Jean Paul Gautier saw this film?  For the cone bra that he designed for Madonna or Lady Gaga looks just like it. And that men would carry mobile telephones? Or geeks would carry battery packs to keep their stuff charged up and ready to go? Better than Raymond Baxter on Tomorrow's World.






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